2012-05-02

Klimata pārmainas: Gaias gurūs v. Sierra Club of Canada


Global warming guru says not so fast

Kris Sims

Monday, April 30, 2012, 9:46 PM

OTTAWA - James Lovelock, one of the world's most revered environmentalists and scientists, has admitted to being an "alarmist" about climate change.
Lovelock -- whose books predicted billions of people would be dead by the end of this century because of global warming and the last "breeding pairs" of people would have to live at the polar regions -- now admits he went too far.
The 92-year-old now says his warnings were too alarmist, and that he and many others, including former U.S. vice-president Al Gore, were "extrapolating too far" from computer models.
"The climate is doing its usual tricks. There's nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now," he told MSNBC.
"The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time ... it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising -- carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that."
His public correction doesn't concern the Sierra Club of Canada.
"The science of climate change has never said that billions of people would be dead or that London would be underwater by the end of the century, but it is progressing more rapidly than the models were predicting," said John Bennett, executive director of the environmental organization.
"Mr. Lovelock never had it right in the first place, so his correcting it is a good thing."
Lovelock has written books about his "Gaia theory" that our planet exists as a single living organism.
He was also the first one to figured out how to detect CFCs that experts said were creating holes in the ozone layer,
The Queen has honoured him and NASA uses his inventions, but Bennett's not so impressed.
"He is not seen as someone who is an authority on climate change. He's more of a philosopher than a scientist. I don't consider him to be one of my heroes," he said.
Bennett still holds Al Gore in high regard, despite Lovelock saying he was being an alarmist too.
Gore's plight to educate citizens about climate change were the subject of the lauded documentary, An Inconvenient Truth.
"His presentation of the facts of climate change is relatively correct. There's a few errors in his film, but they were based on the best estimates at the time," said Bennett.
"He's the most knowledgeable and understanding of politicians in North America. He is one of my heroes."

.ca: Veselības ministrija atsakās vertēt ēdienu kvalitāti; iekšējie eksperti nepiekrīt


Experts clash with minister over food labels

Documents reveal concern as Aglukkaq rejects national rating system

Health Canada's top nutrition experts are at odds over their minister's laissez-faire approach to company-sponsored nutrition labels on the front of food packages, internal records suggest.
The schism, chronicled in documents released to Postmedia News under access to information, comes as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration considers options to develop a front-of-packaging (FOP) labelling system.
It would replace the myriad private programs developed by food manufacturers and retailers that designate certain foods as healthier options using their own criteria.
These include proprietary programs such as Kraft's Sensible Solution, Nestle's check mark system and Facts Up Front, a recently launched voluntary program for food and beverage companies. In Canada, other examples include Loblaw's Blue Menu, Safeway's Eating Right and the Heart and Stroke Foundation's Health Check program.
The push for a government-regulated nutrition rating system on the front of food packages received a big boost in the U.S. last October, when the Institute of Medicine released a report calling for corporate logos and symbols on the front of food packages to be scrapped in place of a single nutrition system that ranked products on a scale of zero to three based on their sugar, sodium and fat content.
The report of the government science panel was commissioned by the FDA.
Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq immediately shot down the proposal, saying she thought it was "great" that companies have developed these proprietary programs.
"Our government is not considering implementing a point system for food," Aglukkaq added.
The categorical statement caught off guard senior officials in Health Canada's nutrition evaluation division who raised the issue of harmonizing labelling rules with the U.S., records show.
"I must say I was curious about who had done that response!" a section head in Health Canada's nutrition evaluation division wrote to colleagues after the chief of the nutrition regulations and standards division circulated Aglukkaq's comments.
In response to a separate note from the chief of the nutrition regulations and standards division about "our minister's position on standardizing FOP labelling," the section head of Health Canada's nutrition labelling and claims unit raised Aglukkaq's objections as a potential problem.
"Interesting, but the pressure will be high on the government to show that something as valuable will be offered to Canadians. We obviously need to discuss this one with USF-DA," the section head wrote. "Is it worth trying to see what kind of collaboration we want to see on this one with them?"
Just days after Aglukkaq's statement on front-of-package labelling and the Institute of Medicine's report, the food directorate prepared "talking points" for Aglukkaq for a November meeting on food labelling that painted a different picture.
In addition to defending Canada's labelling regulations because they provide Canadians "the tools they need to make health food choices when they shop for groceries," Aglukkaq said that the rules were enhanced by proprietary front-ofpackage programs that "help give Canadians even more information about the food they purchase."
However, the briefing said "guidance to help ensure these systems are not confusing to consumers is being considered."
In the appendix, the ministerial briefing also said "a need for consistency in the criteria and type of information has been identified" with front-of-package proprietary programs.

Uzvedības finance


risky__thinkstock - Prospect theory essentially argues that in situations involving financial risk, people care more about the value of their potential losses and gains than the probability of the outcomes. | Getty Images/iStockphoto
May 1, 2012

Balancing act: Why we misjudge risks

By DAVID PARKINSON
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail

Nobel-winning research spawned penetrating insights into the human psychology behind investing

Behavioural finance is celebrating a big anniversary in 2012.
It's been 10 years since Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist by trade, won the Nobel Prize in economics for having "integrated insights from psychology into economics" - an event that represented a coming of age for behavioural finance as a bona fide field of research.
The "prospect theory" that Mr. Kahneman and his long-time colleague, Amos Tversky, introduced in 1979, on which the Nobel honour was largely based, threw a wrench into traditional economic theory - and opened the door for a new generation of researchers to consider the role of human cognition, motivation and emotion in financial markets. "This whole notion really launched what has become known as behavioural finance," said Stephen Foerster, professor of finance at the Richard Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario. (Unfortunately, Mr. Tversky didn't share in the Nobel honour, as he had passed away before the Nobel committee made its selection. Nobels are only awarded to living people.)
Prospect theory essentially argues that in situations involving financial risk, people care more about the value of their potential losses and gains than the probability of the outcomes. The result is that they can be more cautious or confident than statistical probability would dictate; they routinely misjudge the odds for success or failure.
Prospect theory spawned a mountain of increasingly detailed research over the past three decades. It raised questions about our basic understanding of successful investing. Concepts such as "tail risk," "fat tails" and "black swans," which found their way into the popular market lexicon since the 2008 market crisis, have their basis in the growing body of work surrounding investor reactions to extreme investing dilemmas.
"Investing is a matter of predictions," said Arnold Wood, president and chief executive officer of Boston-based equity-portfolio-management firm Martingale Asset Management L.P., a long-time proponent of behavioural finance. "The question is: 'How do you beat the market?' And the fact is that not many people do ... Why is that? That's what behavioural finance is - it's all hidden behind the question of 'why'."
Researchers have found that investors are overconfident in their own abilities and likelihood of success; they hold onto losses for too long and sell off gains too early; and they overestimate the value of increasingly complex, "expert" information in justifying their investment decisions.
The upshot is that investing is a lot less predictable and rational than we used to believe - a conclusion that comes as little surprise to anyone who has played the stock market in the past decade.
"The fact is that many domains are close to unpredictable," said Richard Deaves, a behavioural finance professor at McMaster University's DeGroote School of Business, in his recent review of Mr. Kahneman's new memoir Thinking, Fast and Slow. "While it is true that the weather has a significant predictable component, financial, economic and political systems are much less predictable."
_______

Playing the odds


Three classic experiments from Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, the modern fathers of behavioural finance:
1. Graduate students are told that they will participate in a coin toss, in which they will lose $100 if the coin lands on "tails," but win an unspecified amount if the coin is "heads." They are asked to indicate how much money they would expect to win on a "heads" in order to be willing to participate. On average, they wanted more than $200 - more than double the return that the statistical odds would justify.
2. In a lottery scenario, people are offered the choice between a certain win of $3,000, and an 80-per-cent chance of winning $4,000 but a 20-per-cent chance of winning nothing. More than 90 per cent choose the certain $3,000, even though the risk on the bigger win is statistically more profitable ($4,000 x 80 per cent = $3,200). But when the scenario is flipped around - people are told they can either lose $3,000, or have an 80-per-cent chance of losing $4,000 but a 20-per-cent chance of losing nothing, almost 90 per cent take the chance over the certain loss, even though it is statistically riskier.
3. People are told about a woman named "Linda," who is 31 years old, bright, outspoken, a philosophy major. They're told she is concerned about discrimination and social justice, and has participated in anti-nuclear protests. They are asked whether Linda is more likely to be (a) a bank teller, or (b) a bank teller and an activist in the feminism movement. Nine out of 10 people choose (b) - even though the statistical probability of her being a bank teller certainly outweighs the probability of her being a bank teller plus something else.
David Parkinson


<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/david-parkinson/balancing-act-why-we-misjudge-risks/article2419685/>

2012-05-01

Bhopal, .in + olimpiāds, .uk -- .us kompānijas pienākums?


India’s open wound haunts Dow’s Olympic dreams

 

 
 
 
 

Halimanbi, a blind victim of the Bhopal disaster, was named Sinhourwali (the lioness) by her colleagues for her unrelenting fiery participation in the struggle for justice. She is pictured in her home with husband Abdul Hamid.

The Olympics, the world’s biggest sporting event, has courted controversies from its inception. An event that took off as a religious celebration in ancient Greece, has in modern times witnessed everything: bribing, bullying, doping, sexism, racism, political manipulation — you name it, the Games would claim it.
The latest controversy arose when the International Olympic Committee took on the Dow Chemical Company as World-Wide Partner for the Olympics and for the Olympic Movement. Dow Chemical, the world’s second-largest chemical manufacturer, also paid a whopping £7 million for a decorative wrap for the London Olympic Stadium.
Ever since the details of the agreement surfaced, the survivors of one of the world’s worst industrial disasters, the Bhopal gas tragedy of 1984, along with social activists, environmentalists, athletes and human rights groups including Amnesty International and the Indian Olympic Association, have been demanding that Dow be dropped as the main sponsor from the 2012 Olympics. Adding weight to the protest, Meredith Alexander, member of the Commission for a Sustainable London 2012, resigned earlier this year. She demanded that Dow take responsibility for one of the worst corporate and human rights violations of her generation.
Twenty-eight years after the lethal gas leak at the Union Carbide India Limited (UCIL) pesticides plant that may have killed more than 20,000 (and counting) people and injured half a million, Bhopal is still an open wound in India. Mothers are still delivering babies with severe deformities, the young and old have been fighting chronic health problems ranging from psychological and neurological disabilities, to vision and breathing related disorders. A curative petition is still pending in the court and no final compensation has been made.
In 2002, a Dow Chemical spokesperson reportedly stated the 1989 compensation that amounted to $500 per person should be good enough for an Indian, a statement which the company later retracted. One of these “Indians” is Halimanbi, who was named Sinhourwali (the lioness) by her colleagues for her unrelenting fiery participation in the struggle for justice. Today, in her late 70s, she has lost the vision in her eyes, but not any of her passion. Sitting in a 60-square-foot “home” with a mud floor and broken aluminum sheets for a roof, beside a few empty vessels and a broken-down cupboard, Sinhourwali stares sightlessly as her hands grope for her supari box. Her husband, Abdul Hamid, drags himself beside her and picks up the box and places it in her hands.
“We will win, there is no other way,” she says, “we have fought for so long; we will win!”
The compensation she had received, that was deemed “good enough,” has been long spent — on expensive medical bills, and for their daily bread. The sole earner of the family, Abdul Hamid could no longer work the rickshaw he owned. Sinhourwali is, however, hopeful for the future, that justice will be rendered, and the accused given due punishment. She still awaits a final settlement, so that she and her husband can live their declining years in peace.
At the Chingari Trust run by Bhopal gas tragedy survivors Rashida Bee and Champa Devi Shukla, more than 300 children attend the special school for victims of groundwater contamination. These children are from the communities based in the two- to three-kilometre radius of the UCIL factory premises. The children suffer from developmental delays, stunted growth, hearing disorders, congenital disorders, birth defects. Nearly all of them are under the age of 12.
One of them is Meenakshi. Born five years ago, her body has refused to catch up with her mind. She suffers from stunted growth. As she putters about the yard, one of the mothers asks softly, Has this happened elsewhere, or is it only us?
The activists attribute the groundwater contamination to leakage from the solar evaporation ponds that were used for dumping toxic waste in the Union Carbide factory grounds. The leakage caused by tears in the liner of the ponds meant that poisonous waste containing heavy metals, benzene, mercury and lead slowly seeped into the groundwater tables — the same groundwater that the residents in nearly 20 colonies around the factory use for their household needs. The water was so contaminated the tube wells in the vicinity of the factory had to be abandoned way back in 1982.
Evidence of the groundwater contamination was first published in a report by Greenpeace in 1999, the same year Dow had begun the process to acquire the Union Carbide Corporation, which was completed in 2001. Since then there have been more than a dozen tests conducted by the Madhya Pradesh Pollution Control Board (MPCB) testifying to the fact. A fact-finding mission (1999-2004) has informed of the presence of toxins in vegetables and breast milk — lead, mercury, nickel and pesticides were found. Mercury, one of the most toxic chemical compounds, was up to six million times higher than expected levels. The groundwater contamination has reached colonies even three kilometres away from the plant.
Activists allege the grounds and structure of the factory are still contaminated, even as children from nearby slums sneak in to use the grounds for playing cricket, to scavenge for metal parts to be sold as scrap — some even use it as an open toilet. Today, the gaunt, savaged factory premises, now controlled by the Madhya Pradesh government, still house the pesticide plants, standing tall as reminder of the continuing tragedy.
Despite the growing resentment, both Dow and the Olympic committee are still adamant about not withdrawing Dow sponsorship. While Dow had to remove its logo from the wrap due to the protests, the decorative wrap-up of denial continues in the case of the Bhopal gas tragedy. The question remains: Would a 900-metre-long and 20-metre-wide sheet of fabric be large enough to cover the chemical giant’s frayed image?
Ramlath Kavil and Supriya Madangarli are founding editors of feministsindia.com.
 
 
 

<http://www.ottawacitizen.com/story_print.html?id=6546880&sponsor=>

Kriminālitāte vai mentāla slimība?


April 30, 2012

Violence and mental illness: case of Norway's Breivik reveals our prejudices

By ANDRÉ PICARD
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

While questions whirl around the sanity of Norway's most notorious figure, his case reveals the stark prejudice, stigma and circular logic surrounding mental illness

Is Anders Breivik insane?
On July 22 of last year, he committed the worst act of terrorism in the history of Norway, a calculated massacre that shocked the world.
First, Mr. Breivik detonated a bomb outside the offices of the Prime Minister in Oslo, killing eight people. Then, dressed as a police officer, he made his way to the island of Utoya, where he methodically murdered 69 more people, most of them attending a summer camp organized by the Labour Party youth league.
These are clearly the actions of a madman, right?
That is the simple explanation. Or, more accurately, the simplistic one.
Outrageous crimes are not always explained by mental illness. Nor are people with mental illness criminals.
But Mr. Breivik's case has, among other things, exposed some common prejudices.
First and foremost, the general public tends to embrace the equations: violence = mental illness and mental illness = violence.
The reality is that people suffering from mental illness - even severe conditions like schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, whose symptoms can include psychosis - are no more likely to be violent than members of the general public.
In fact, studies have shown repeatedly that those with mental health problems are about 10 times more likely to be victims of violence than perpetrators - in large part because of their difficult life circumstances and the stigma they face.
When people with mental illness are violent (and, yes, it does happen though, again, the violence is often aimed inward, resulting in self-harm and suicide) it is almost always a treatment issue - meaning that lack of treatment results in a downward spiral and psychotic outbursts.
A tragic example of this is Vince Li, the so-called Greyhound bus killer, who in July 2008 decapitated and cannibalized a fellow bus passenger he believed was a demon out to kill him. This is a tragedy, but it's not proof that mental illness leads to violence.
Mr. Li was declared not criminally responsible for his acts and committed to a psychiatric facility. After years of treatment for schizophrenia, he is doing remarkably better and, by all accounts, should be released in the near future.
The very suggestion will no doubt outrage some but that is how the system should work: Sick people should be treated and discharged when they're better. They are, after all, in a hospital, getting care, not punishment.
Criminals, on the other hand, should be punished (and, hopefully, rehabilitated) and released when their time is up.
Determining who is ill and who is criminal usually rests with psychiatrists. The case of Mr. Breivik (like that of Mr. Li) has exposed another common misconception, that the purpose of psychiatrists is to "get people off."
Even in Norway, one of the most liberal countries on Earth, and a country with a superb mental health system, this is a commonly-stated viewpoint. When Mr. Breivik was diagnosed with schizophrenia, there was outrage.
"Tolerance can only go so far," Dr. Simon Wessely noted in a recent editorial in The Lancet. The psychiatrist was part of a blue-ribbon panel that investigated the response of the Norwegian Health Service to the massacre.
Subsequently, other expert opinions have been presented in court stating that Mr. Breivik does not suffer from mental illness. This view will likely carry the day because there is little evidence that the bombing and shootings were the result of delusions or psychosis. Rather, the horrific acts were meticulously planned.
While Mr. Breivik's views on multiculturalism, immigration, Islam and the Knights Templar may seem "crazy," they are not evidence of a psychiatric disorder.
It is not always an easy distinction to make, Dr. Wessely said: "When people struggle to comprehend what lies behind the mass murder ... the simplest response is the killer 'must be mad.' The inexplicable can only be explained as an act of insanity, which by definition cannot be rationally explained."
In short, inexplicable is not a synonym for insane. Some people are, for lack of a better word, evil. They are not treatable.
But back to the misconceptions laid bare by the case.
The widespread public belief is that being sent to a forensic psychiatric institution is a cozy alternative to prison, that it's a scam that is widely exploited.
The reality is that the "not criminally responsible" defence is rarely used, even by a lot of people who clearly suffer from mental illness.
The reason is that - contrary to popular wisdom - it is a cumbersome legal manoeuvre and those declared NCR actually spend significantly more time in custody than those sent to jail.
Criminals fiercely resist the NCR designation; after all, most offenders have the same prejudices as the general public. As Robert Whitaker wrote in his bookMad In America, "in the pecking order of social discards, asylum patients fall below criminals."
Mr. Breivik, who has been charged with "acts of terror," faces either 21 years in prison - a sentence that could be extended indefinitely if he is still considered a threat to society - or closed psychiatric care, possibly for life. It will be up to the judges in the ongoing case to decide.
The mass murderer for his part, said he wants to be declared sane and imprisoned; he said being sentenced to closed psychiatric care would be "worse than death."
And there is yet another prejudice: That the only thing worse than being a vilified mass murderer is being labelled mentally ill.
Is it any wonder stigma persists?
<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/new-health/andre-picard/violence-and-mental-illness-case-of-norways-breivik-reveals-our-prejudices/article2418307/>

Bez privilēģijām, varētu labāk izpalīdzēt


International Co-operation Minister Bev Oda’s decision to live lavishly in London while attending a conference meant to help children in developing countries points to a larger problem in the international system. Her opulent lifestyle in the British capital is minimal compared with a diplomatic culture that has become more lucrative for aid disbursers to roam around the world rather than stay in their offices to do what they’re paid to do. Isn’t there something fundamentally wrong with holding a conference on poor people in a five-star hotel in one of the most expensive cities in the world?
Extravagant spending during international conferences is nothing new. The most interesting historical example took place during the 1815 Congress of Vienna, when the Austrian Empire had to institute a 50-per-cent income tax to pay for the cost of providing entertainment to delegates. And amid the severe economic crisis in Europe immediately following the First World War, when the necessities of life were beyond the means of most French citizens, France provided each delegate at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference with gratuities that drove one American negotiator to tell his wife that he was living more luxuriously than ever before.
In modern diplomacy, it’s the institutionalization of perquisites in the forms of free airline tickets, free accommodation in luxury hotels and generous per diems that is costing taxpayers millions of dollars every year. The profligate perks are even extended to rebels who often spend most of their lives in the bush. Per diems and allowances paid to Burundi delegates in the late 1990s, for instance, cost donors an average of $2.5-million a year. The Canadian government contributed a significant amount of that money.
Recent studies not only question the supposed benefits for providing these perks, they show that perks often have unintended negative consequences on conferences. A study released by the Centre for International Governance Innovation’s Africa Initiative demonstrates that generous perks such as free accommodation and daily living allowances provided to delegates to peace talks unintentionally prolonged the negotiations.
The money often seduced the conflicting parties away from whatever interest they might have had in actually reaching an agreement. For many of the delegates, staying free of charge in five-star hotels and receiving the equivalent of five months pay in one week of per diems made continued talks more attractive than achieving peace. To increase their share of the money on offer, some delegates created procedural barriers, while others overplayed genuine procedural problems. The generous perks also promoted fragmentation of rebel groups. As Julie Flint witnessed during the Sudanese peace talks, the money contributed to making the “the status quo more profitable than peace and the responsibilities of exercising power.”
While the Africa Initiative study relies on African cases, it notes that the issue transcends the African continent. Profligate spending are embedded diplomatic practices in major international organizations. Per diems, in particular, have become lucrative income-generating ventures for many international civil servants who have developed the habit of economizing on their allowances.
The spinoffs and savings from perks have turned well-meaning civil servants and aid disbursers into professional travellers. It is perhaps unsurprising that Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development data show less than a quarter of the trillions provided as aid to the poor since 1960 went to the productive sector.
It’s ironic that Ms. Oda is the one making headlines for extravagant spending at a development conference, given that mid-level Canadian diplomats who have become increasingly concerned about the costs of this unnecessary spending are pushing for attitudinal change at international organizations such as the African Union. The hypocrisy notwithstanding, the Oda affair has opened the space for the Conservative government to lend the necessary political support to the inaudible voices of our diplomats.
Thomas Kwasi Tieku teaches at the University of Toronto, and leads the Africa Initiative research program at the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo. He is author of the report How Perks for Delegates Can Influence Peace Process Outcomes.

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May 1st is International Worker's Day